If the process complies with basic democratic requirements (an ample, civic, pacific majority expressed by means of a majority in the Catalan Parliament and/or a referendum), I have no doubt that Catalonia would be promptly recognised by a majority of EU member states, notwithstanding Spanish pressures. If the EU has recognised Kosovo, it will recognise Catalonia more quickly and easily.
In March this year, an ample majority of the European Parliament voted to authorise the European Commission to begin negotiations with Kosovo for future membership to the EU. Spanish diplomatic pressure for MEP's vote against was intense, and both the governing Popular Party and the opposition Socialists made the same case in the debate in the relevant plenary sitting: that “Kosovo is a state that may harbour the trafficking of arms, drugs and children...” and all the evils you might imagine, and for that reason should not join the EU. British and German MEPs, on the other hand, said that Kosovo will cease all these activities as it becomes integrated into EU trade and gradually acquires democratic habits.
Kosovo really scares Spain because of the precedent it sets in the EU, as it made a unilateral declaration of independence at its regional parliament, without negotiations with a Serbia that did not want to negotiate anything. In fact, at the opening and closing of his 6-month European Presidency in January and July 2010, many German and British MPs asked Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero when Spain would recognise Kosovo and “give up membership of the club of countries that have not yet recognised it”. Mr. Zapatero once again avoided the sensitive issue of democratic quality for most Europeans. The vote in the European Parliament on the issue of Kosovo was won, with a sweeping majority of 522 to 110 against, as was the amendment calling the remaining countries of the EU-27 who had not yet recognised Kosovo to do so promptly.
I am in no doubt that the debate on Catalonia's independence is much more emotional than rational. The four thousand multinationals based in Catalonia know very well that if this were a normal country (establishment of the Mediterranean Corridor, efficient local management of ports, airports and railways, punctual payment of bills, efficient labour and energy markets, a stable investments regime, etc.) they would be able to multiply their volume and profits. The day after the Catalan Parliament votes for independence, these four thousand multinationals will continue sending off their trucks, ships and trains as if nothing had happened. Their is nothing to debate on this point.
As seen from Brussels, the recurring treats from Madrid of expulsion from the Euro and the EU if Catalonia proclaims unilateral independence are not really very consistent: if there is any country that runs the risk of being ejected from the Euro, it is this inefficient centralist Jacobin Spain that is unable to change its centuries-old isolationist chip and adapt to an open, global world of the 21st century. The four thousand multinationals, based in Catalonia though self-interest, will not allow Catalonia to be expelled from the Euro and will favour rapid internal enlargement, already considered and studied by the EU in case Scotland votes for independence.
As an British Governor of Minorca said in the 18th century, “The Castilians are arrogant, intolerant, and what is worse, they have not a single good idea”. How up-to-date, today in the 21st century! Catalonia, on the other hand, is seen by very many people with whom I have dealt in the EU as an industrial, exporting, creative, semi-Nordic Mediterranean country that is a model for many PIGS, countries and regions in the south of the continent, to follow. The fear in Madrid must not set amongst us, and we must decide collectively what is best for us: Europe is still a space where freedom and democracy are the pillars and fundamental values in political action.
Ramon Tremosa - MEP and professor of economics at the University of Barcelona
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