Ms. Cospedal,
Something Has Happened Here
How wonderful,
listening to Ms. Cospedal, the Secretary General of the governing Partido
Popular (PP), at the press conference! While the Spanish governing class is so
simplistic in its analysis of the complex Catalan reality, it means the
Catalans will always be at an advantage. We just love how the PP believes that
the plunge in votes for Catalan President Mas means the collapse of the
movement for the emancipation of Catalonia. Is it worth complicating the analysis
a little?
Two years ago, there
was only one parliamentary group that was standing for election with the right
to self determination and the constitution of Catalonia's own state on its
programme. That was Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), the Catalan
Republican Left, which got a severe drubbing, going from 21 to 10 MPs, because
more than half of its electoral base didn't agree with its coalition with the
Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the disastrous process leading to the 2008
Statute for home rule. So until a few months ago, there were only the 10 ERC
MPs, plus the 4 MPs of Solidaritat per la Independència, Solidarity for
Independence, a splinter from ERC, i.e. 14 MPs defending independence, out of a
total of 135.
So what started the
earthquake? Well, firstly the incapacity of the Catalan President's
Convergència i Unió (CiU) party to get from their prime partner in Madrid and
Barcelona, the PP, to make a reinterpretation of the disastrous reading of
parts of the home rule Statute which the Constitutional court had crippled.
Then there was (and is) the hyper-nationalist drift of Spanish Prime Minister
Rajoy's team, abducted by the PP's FAES think-tank, run by former PM J.M.
Aznar, questioning the entire Autonomic system, i.e. the Constitutional compact
established after the death of Spanish dictator Gen. Franco. Additionally,
the gravity of the economic crisis has
laid bare the fragility of Catalan home rule, trapped between the debt accrued
because of the constant tax deficit with the Madrid central government, which
collects taxes, and the need to get to the end of the month, forcing the
Catalan government to apply cutbacks and to beg for charity from Spanish
Minister of Finance and Public Administrations Cristobal Montoro. Finally,
there has been a considerable mobilisation of general society led by
independents and separatist progressives, which grass-roots members of CiU,
federalist left-wing Inicicativa per Catalunya (IC) and some from the PSC have
gradually joined, resulting in the impressive demonstration of 9/11 and a huge
shift towards independence in public opinion surveys.
These factors have
all contributed to CiU going to the polls, for the first time in the democratic
period, with a programme including self-determination and independence, instead
of home rule. If you consider that its electorate have been used to 35 years of
flip-flopping, of ambiguity, then holding onto 50 seats in the Catalan
Parliament can be considered very good going when switching to a
ground-breaking programme. CiU have gone from zero MPs for independence, to 50.
In the same way, IC have gone from 10 federalist MPs to 13 for
self-determination and a Catalan state. And if to that we add the recovery of
the representation of ERC, 21 seats for pro-independence social democrats and
liberal socialists, becoming the second force and leader of the opposition in
Parliament; plus the pro-independence far-left CUP getting into Parliament with
3 seats. The result has been a rise in pro-independence MPs from 14 seats to 87.
If we want to get Ms.
Cospedal's yes men even more nervous, we could add the PSC, which although it
has seen better days, has kept its head above the PP in Catalonia, and has
switched from autonomism to theoretical federalism, but defending a
legal right-to-decide for the first time since 1979, when it shelved
self-determination on merging with the Spanish socialists, becoming the
PSC-PSOE. Should radical unionists really be happy?
It could be worse:
the PP has gained only one single seat. Only Ciutadans – Citizens (C's) – has
gone from 3 to 9 seats, taking with them the trendy pseudo-progressive Spanish
nationalists. In other words, thought they don't like the idea, C's are
Catalonia's own Spanish unionists, known a century ago as Lerrouxists – Spanish
populists – a phenomenon which is unrepeatable elsewhere in Spain. On the other
hand, PP and another minor party, Unión Progreso y Democracia (UpyD), are the
Catalan delegations of the central plain's Spanish nationalism. I see very
little future for them in Catalonia.
So, to conclude,
clarification for the first time of the Catalan political panorama, with a
comfortable majority of over 2/3 in favour of Catalonia's own state. With a
growing weight within this block of the left (Catalonia is not just conservative
CiU) and with the PSC's shift, although lukewarm, towards the defence of the
right to decide, this may make the first bill the Catalan Parliament submits to
the Spanish Congreso, entreating legal authorisation for a referendum, with 107
votes in favour, reaching up to 116 if Ciutadans are intelligent. And the sad
PP voting against. There you are Ms. Cospedal, your analyses are priceless!
Josep Huguet Biosca, former Minister of the Government of Catalonia (2004-2010).
President of the Irla Foundation.
Industrial engineering.
President of the Irla Foundation.
Industrial engineering.
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