14 February: US Ambassador to Spain To Witness Failure by Loyalist Minority To Attract Business Support

There is a saying that “size does not matter.” While this may be the case in some areas of life (or not, ours is not to discuss this rather delicate matter here), it is clearly not true in democracy, for the basic reason that, by definition, democracy means decision-making by majorities. Since self-determination is simply a higher stage of democracy, again size is essential, and the future of countries depends on the ability of the proponents of different courses of action to convince a majority of the electorate.

Having said that, it has been made repeatedly clear over the last few months in Catalonia that Loyalists are a minority. Opinion polls show it clearly, the respective size of demonstrations confirm it, and what is most important and after all the ultimate test, the latest election to the Catalan Parliament resulted in the return of an overwhelming  majority of pro-independence MPs.

Aware of their smaller size, and furthermore, often unable to articulate any reasons why Catalonia would be better off and more secure within Spain, Loyalists have seldom resorted to organizing public events. More to the point, they have rather avoided them. Instead, they have simply relied on inertia and groundless fears.

An exception seemed to be plans to hold a business executives rally on 14 February, organized by Foment del Treball Nacional, a Catalan Business Federation (or rather by its Loyalist chairman, Mr Gay de Montella, since support for it even from within Foment has been lukewarm). Under the banner “Anem per Feina” (let us get down to work), it was meant to send the message that, while in favor of fiscal sovereignty, a majority of Catalan companies and business leaders rejected the possibility of resuming sovereignty and leaving Spain. Unfortunately for its promoters, such grandiose plans soon unraveled, with many business organizations either flatly refusing to take part or expressing their grave misgivings concerning the nature and content of the event. Among others, the following reactions may be noted:

·         Mr Josep Gonzalez, chairman of PIMEC (the most important small and medium-sized business federation in Catalonia), said that “We agree with the right to decide” [self-determination], adding that he would not attend the 14 February event.

·         Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce is not taking part in the event either.

·         Small-business federation CECOT expressed its deep “misgivings” over its proposed aims and format.

·         The Catalan Business Center (CCN) made its opposition eminently clear.

As a result, what had to be a rally at Barcelona’s Trade Conventions Center has now become a small-scale event at Foment’s headquarters, a rather subdued and domestic affair barely resembling the original blueprints. All this comes as no surprise, why should a business leader be in favor of losing 8% of one’s GDP, being unable to catch a train to Paris or a plane to New York, suffer crumbling infrastructure, and be excluded from defense industry contracts? While for some people there may be a fine line between pleasure and pain, this refers to the bedroom, not the boardroom.

 

Joint Strike Fighter assembly line. Catalan industry has been suffering from a long-standing de facto veto on participation in international weapons manufacturing consortia, and is looking forward to working together with US and other allied companies in projects such as the F-35.

Up until here we have not said much that has not already been extensively reported by the mainstream press. There is, however, a further twist to the story. Another, less publicized event, is also taking place on 14 February, namely a lecture and round table with the US Ambassador to Spain and Andorra, Alan D. Solomont, who will be speaking on “Reflections on U.S-Spain Relations and the Way Forward” at the Cercle d’Economia in Barcelona. The president of the Cercle d’Economia is Josep Pique, a Loyalist and former Spanish industry minister who recently said that “It is Spain which is a political subject”, while recognizing that “there are many citizens of Catalonia who believe that Catalonia has a right to her sovereignty”. This addendum may be evidence that, just like many fellow Loyalists, he is already maneuvering to quietly reposition himself.

 

Was all this a coincidence? Perhaps, although it is better not to believe too much in them. While it may well be a coincidence, it is more likely an attempt by Gay and Pique to launch a pincer movement against the Catalan Government and the political and popular majority supporting the path towards independence. In their dreams, the Loyalist organizers of both events may have imagined a successful businessmen rally on exactly the same day that the US ambassador to Spain visited Barcelona. It is not too difficult to imagine the content of his subsequent report to Washington: “Support for independence dropping, business community mostly against, Spain safe in her present borders.”

 

Instead, this is what the ambassador will see on the 14^th, and thereby report:

·         Pro-independence majority growing.

·         Business leaders mostly in favor, or at worst not opposed.

·         Loyalist minority in disarray, unable to explain even a single reason why Catalonia should remain within Spain.

·         Attempt to organize a Loyalist businessmen rally failed, with employers federations against, and organizers forced to move the event to an office building due to the small number of people expected to attend.  

Furthermore, needless to say all of this favors US national security, since just to give an example the ports of Barcelona and Tarragona are excellent options for the naval component of NATO’s missile shield.  

So, going back to the title of the ambassador’s talk, the “Way Forward” is Catalonia, a responsible member of the international community a net security contributor to the Atlantic Alliance, and a country one can do business with.

 

Àlex Calvo is a Professor of International Relations and International Law, Head of the IR Department, and Postgraduate Research Director, European University (Barcelona Campus). An expert on Asian security and defence issues, he got his LLB from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS, University of London) and is currently doing an MA in Second World War Studies at the University of Birmingham. He is a former teaching and research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan).