Dark Ages for Catalonia According to the Spanish Nationalists

The Spanish Partido Popular (ruling party in Spain) has been presenting a very grim picture of an independent Catalonia. The outlook is so devastating that it is nearly impossible to believe.

Partido Popular tries very hard to knit fear in their speech in order to thwart growing pro-independence sentiments. In the last few months, this party, headed in Catalonia by Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, has depicted a scenario that, just like the seven plagues, anticipates every sort of disgrace for Catalonia in case of separation from Spain.

From loss of retirement pensions and social security, to expulsion from the EU, or voiding of university degrees, an independent Catalonia, according to the Spanish nationalists, would condemn Catalans to being isolated from the rest of the western world. The scenario depicted by Partido Popular about a sovereign Catalonia is so devastating that it has been the target of mockery on the web. Here are some of the reactions that PP's Dark Catalonia provoked.

1. Expulsion from the EU

Most of the reasons given by the Spanish nationalists to counter the self-determination process come from what they consider the biggest of evils: the possible expulsion from the European Union and the Euro zone, with the unavoidable associated impoverishment. This has been the main mantra used by them, starting by their president, Mariano Rajoy, who issued a warning a few weeks ago that “outside of Spain and Europe one is condemned to nothingness.” This is quite an apocalyptic prediction, repeated upfront and indirectly by the ministers of the Spanish executive.

Only the Spanish Minister of Justice, Alberto Ruíz-Gallardón, has admitted that, in fact, the result would be the same for Spain: it could find itself also out of the euro zone, because it would not be the same state anymore.

From the EU we have heard contradictory statements in both directions, up to the point of having Spain pressing Brussels to say that Catalonia would be expelled. But most of the experts consider that this would be a political but not legislative decision.

2. Economic desert

The possible exit of Catalonia from the EU has taken the critics of Catalan independence to talk about the return of customs duties, which will isolate the increasingly internationalized Catalan economy. And let's not forget he voices forecasting a mass escape of the multinationals located in Catalonia, like Procter & Gamble and Volkswagen, which will translate in more unemployment.

3. Retirement pensions and unemployment

“Retirement pensions of more than 1.6M Catalans couldn’t be payed, neither the unemployment compensations for the 600.000 unemployed workers.” The spokeswoman for Partido Popular, Alícia Sánchez Camacho, went yesterday beyond that in the list of evils of independence. Probably this is the most predictable threat for two reasons: because Social Security funds  are directly controlled by the central government, and it will use it to prevent secession, and because this threat points at the most vulnerable sectors of society. In the last few months, she has been touring retirement communities to warn them that they have to be very careful with their vote, and how their retirement pensions are in danger with the possible secession of Catalonia.

This theory has been rejected by worldwide recognised economists like Xavier Sala i Martin, Germà Bel, or Elisenda Paluzie. Most of the reserve funds of the Social Security come from the Catalan workers’ contributions, a detail omitted by the Spanish nationalists. The pensions system is not cumulative, so the active workers are the ones who finance the current pensions. For a possible negotiation about separation, it would be necessary that Catalonia takes its share of the reserve funds.

4. University degrees

One of the last reasons used by the Spanish nationalists in power against the pro-independence project is to frighten people that their university degrees would lose their validity. The idea was suggested on Twitter by one of the most controversial representatives and the driving force behind the campaign #CiUfapor (CiU—Catalonia's ruling party—is scary), José Antonio Coto: “In a Catalonia separated from the rest of Spain university degrees would no longer be recognized, or any kind of degree.” “Those are degrees given by universities recognised as Spanish, obviously the validity of those degrees is given by their belonging to Spain”, he added.

The Universities Secretary of the Catalan Government, Antoni Castellà, reminded him that the degrees are validated and assessed by the Catalan Agency for the Quality of the University System, and are valid all through Europe. Anyway, this is the most extreme argument used by them and the one that provoked more controversy.

5. Incentives for peasantry

“Independence will lose growers 310M loss of revenue per year coming from the Common Agricultural Politics (CAP).” The leader of the Spanish nationalists in Catalonia targeted agricultural producers during her campaign. Sánchez-Camacho argued that, as Catalan independence is unequivocally equal to being expelled from the EU, Catalan producers would stop benefitting from the CAP.

The Catalan Agricultural Minister answered to the Spanish nationalists that the Spanish government, right now the sole negotiator with Europe, has enough resources from the 2012-2020 Common Agricultural Politics (CAP) to ensure that Catalonia would not be left behind. “That’s what they have to do, instead of scaring a whole industry”, he replied.

by Marc Colomer, journalist@marccolomer