Those
who have any sort of responsibility in leading any one of the governments in
the European Union, or even in the EU itself, should know that when columnist
Matthew Parris of The London Times
noted that Catalonia was a bigger timebomb than Cyprus, or even Portugal, he
was only right in the destructive capacity that an uncontrolled event in
Catalonia might have for Europe. In other respects, he was wrong in both the
diagnosis and the timing of the explosion.
You
must realise that the bomb will go off in a matter of weeks or months, and the
blast will not initially occur as the result of a secessionist referendum which
won't have had time to take place. The explosion will be social and will,
sooner rather than later, have national consequences. The immediate
repercussions will be economic and social for Spain, and thus for Europe.
Allow me to explain.
1)
Under current legislation, Spain owes the Catalan government €10bn.
2)
Spain's deficit reduction is heavily biased, burdening the autonomous
regions with a much greater percentage than corresponds their budgets. In Spain
the autonomous regions manage the entire welfare package: health, schools,
social services, etc.
3)
This means that the central government apparatus, rather than losing
weight, is gaining it by ridding itself of restrictive measures. This is the
Spanish state, which dominates most public finances, manages major, mostly
inefficient, infrastructures such as the airport network, high-speed trains
(the world leader in terms of miles-to-population) and a hugely oversized army
for a country that has awoken to its poverty. Furthermore, public money is
being used to plug the gaping holes left by a financial system that has
contributed to the real estate bubble and killed the productive economy.
4)
Within the autonomous regions, the distribution of resources is wholly
disparate. Catalonia has a budget deficit of 9% of its GDP, while most of the
17 autonomous regions have fiscal surplus, in some cases exceeding 10% of GDP.
Paradoxically, these structural beneficiaries have virtually no problems with
cuts, while in Catalonia unemployment has reached 27%, and health and schools
are on the brink of collapse.
5)
Under these conditions, Spain intends to impose fresh cuts of up to €4bn in Catalonia applying a
central-government imposed deficit of 0.7%. In relative terms, this means much
more severe cuts than those imposed on Cyprus or Portugal, with the aggravating
circumstance that Catalonia has no instruments of state. 9% of its GDP is
absorbed by central government, while it owes Catalonia €10bn.
To
those European leaders this article may reach: know that Catalan society has
not broken earlier because it holds a hope for change in the political system
by creating its own state, to transcend the lack of democracy and social
justice and the inefficiency of the Spanish one. This process of separation, arbitrated
by the EU and in accord with Spain, would allow a process of reform of Spain's
fundamentals, of a Spanish state that is now a cancer for most of its
inhabitants.
If
the EU allows Spain to be the trigger for Catalonia's downfall, considering it
is 20% of Spain's GDP, 25% of revenue, the funder for a subsidized Spain, a
third of its export and 40% of high-tech exports and certain research areas,
within 24 hours of Catalonia's implosion, Spain will fall. And with it the EU
and all of you, who all too often watch all this from a distance and with
indifference to the sacrifices the citizens of Catalonia make, and have made in
the past, at other historical moments.
And
in case you are not sure where to place me, I was a Minister with the Catalan
Government for Industry, Trade, Tourism & Universities. Be forewarned!
Josep Huguet i Biosca
Minister of Innovation, Universities and Enterprise (2006-2010)
Minister of Trade, Tourism and Consumer Affairs (2004-2006)
President of the Josep Irla Foundation
@Josep_Huguet
Minister of Trade, Tourism and Consumer Affairs (2004-2006)
President of the Josep Irla Foundation
French language version
Very well expressed Mr. Huguet. It ties in very well with Matthew Parris's justified fear, seen as an outsider, on the one hand, of the importance Catalonia has within Spain and Europe, and his misunderstanding of the whole picture and the silent war which is only apparent when living here. Congratulations.