The Barometer by Catalan government pollster Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) released on June 20 confirmed the poll by the El Periódico newspaper last week. The pro-independence bloc is becoming increasingly mainstream. Within this bloc, the Barometer reveals an upward trend for those who speak out clearly in favour of independence. Federalism is the clear loser. The realisation of these results in eventual elections would mean a landslide whereby explicitly pro-independence Republican Left (ERC) would overtake nationalist centre-right Convergència i Unió (CiU) and radical left-wing CUP would gain as much as socialist PSC would lose.
Pro-independence bloc consolidating
The results suggested by the Barometer are as follows: ERC would almost double their number in Parliament, going from 21 seats to 38 or 39; CiU, who currently govern in the Catalan Generalitat, would show a substantial decline, and would fall from the 50 seats they now hold to between 35 and 37; the PSC (linked to the Spanish socialist PSOE) would drop from 20 to 16; the PP (conservative Spanish unionists in power in Madrid), from 16 to 13 or 14; ICV (the alternative left who favour self-determination) remain between 13 and 14 MPs; the Ciudadanos radical unionist party would go from 9 to 12, and CUP (explicitly pro- independence alternative left) would double their seats, going from 3 to 6.
The pro-independence bloc gains weight, as with these figures the sum of those clearly favourable (CiU, ERC and CUP) would have between 79 and 82 seats in the Catalan Parliament (the majority is 68), several more than the 74 seats they add up to now. And the pro-independence bloc would reach two-thirds of the chamber if ICV, who have not yet expressed whether they would favour a Yes or a No vote in a referendum on independence, were to join them. However, they do make a clear commitment to exercising the right to self-determination.
The CEO poll also probed citizens on how they would vote were the referendum on the independence of Catalonia to be held tomorrow. The result given shows support for independence has increased against last February. Whereas the Yes vote then totalled 54.7%, this would now stand at 55.6%, almost one point above that four months ago, and 4.5 points higher than a year ago.
Federalist option increasingly losing muscle
According to the survey, nearly 80% of voters believe that self-government in Catalonia is not enough. Socialists are firm supporters of deepening self-government, transforming Spain into a federal state, an option they sell as being more feasible than independence. Some moderate minority leaders in CiU, such as Christian Democrat leader Mr. Duran i Lleida, also advocate a Spanish confederation. But the CEO Barometer shows that over the last year support in Catalonia for federalism has been falling in favour of an independent state.
If the choice were to be made from all models of state, 47% would opt for an independent Catalonia, 22.8% an autonomous region of Spain (as now), 21.2% a federal state and 4.6% a region without autonomy within a centralist Spain.
This may have to do with the fact that there are no clear supporters in Madrid for the transformation of Spain into a federal state: the PP is clearly against, and committed rather to re-centralization (see the proposed "simplification of administration" presented on 21 June by the Spanish Cabinet). The Spanish left has recently shown some timid, nuanced approaches to federalism. But polls also show that the Spanish population outside Catalonia would rather re-centralize the state, as confirmed by the rise of the centralist Spanish nationalist party UPyD.
If you consider that the transformation of Spain into a federal state would require a two-thirds majority in the Spanish Parliament, dissolution and the calling of general elections for a new parliament to re-write the constitution, and finally ratification of the new constitution by referendum, it is clear that a federal solution is much more complicated than the route to sovereignty.
Likewise, the poll shows that voters of the parties within the bloc in favour of the so-called right to decide, i.e. self determination, are shifting towards those parties explicitly in favour of independence. The votes lost by CiU almost all went to ERC, who have also gained voters from other, left-wing, parties. The socialist PSC's haemorrhaged votes did not end up with Spanish centralists Ciudadanos, but to abstention or to ICV. But overall, ICV has not grown much: although it has made a stronger bid for the right to decide than the PSC, part of their voters have switched to the more clearly pro-independence CUP.
Source: Vilaweb (adapted)
0 comentaris:
Publica un comentari a l'entrada