Spanish defence policy over the last few years has been two-pronged: deep cuts in conventional expeditionary capabilities and increased investment in domestic intelligence. Thus, while myriad weapons systems were no longer properly maintained and were often offered for sale in the international market, the CNI [National Intelligence Center] saw its budget skyrocket in order to finance a dirty war against Catalonia, which is moving towards a restoration of her sovereignty. The impact on NATO and the maritime democracies is that the limited capabilities which Spain could bring to bear have deteriorated to such an extent that Madrid is even more of a free rider than she used to be. Just to give an example, Spain refused to modernize the light carrier Principe de Asturias, decommissioning her early. She is now trying to find a buyer. Why? The answer is straightforward: she was not needed to launch a coup against Catalonia. The fact that NATO may have found her useful to take up some of the US Navy's duties in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, thus facilitating the Pivot to the Pacific never entered the mind of Spanish leaders. They have never believed in NATO, and their obsession to keep Catalonia at all costs, even to the extreme of committing war crimes against civilians, has reinforced this cavalier attitude to Allied security. To be honest, we must make it clear that many Spanish officers do not share this attitude and would prefer to see their country become a normal NATO partner.
Over the last few years, and even more so after the massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona in September last year, the Spanish government has repeatedly refused to rule out the use of force against Catalan civilians. In other words, they have refused to rule out opening fire on them in order to keep control of Catalonia. While serious Allies were discussing missile defence, the South China Sea, or cyberwarfare, Madrid was single-mindedly obsessed with Catalonia. Not only have Spanish leaders refused to rule out a resort to force, but often they have explicitly threatened Catalans. This is something we often associate with the Third World, not with what is after all a EU and NATO member.
Fortunately, last week British Prime Minister David Cameron chose to intervene, publicly urging Rajoy to negotiate with Catalonia and let a referendum proceed. The ultimate meaning of those words: forget about a coup.
What is the significance of David Cameron's preemptive intervention for the US, NATO, and maritime democracies like India, the Philippines, and Japan? Apart from helping to avoid massive human rights violation and the need for a later intervention in the heart of Europe, it should hopefully help bring Spanish defence policy back into line with Allied needs. Now that it is clear that Spain will not be allowed to open fire against Catalan civilians, Madrid should cease and desist in its dirty war against Catalonia, cut down domestic intelligence spending, and recommission and modernize the Principe de Asturias, among other weapons system. Of course, in doing so she must take into account that she will soon be losing tax revenue from Catalonia, amounting in net terms to more than 16 billion euros annually. Therefore Spain should be careful not to try to do more than she can sustainably finance with her own resources, but better to do little for the Allied interest than do nothing.
As for Catalonia, there is no doubt that once again sovereign she will do her duty in terms of Allied security and defence. Therefore, the net impact of Catalan independence on NATO will be positive. On the one hand, the Atlantic Alliance will gain a new, serious, member. On the other, an existing one should hopefully evolve, once freed of the burden of trying to keep a territory by force, and become another serious member. This would also mean an end to the harassment and naval incidents that Gibraltar has been suffering, and a clear unequivocal declaration that Madrid will respect the wishes of the Rock's population. That would be a third added benefit, since the United Kingdom would not need to permanently deploy a naval force to protect Gibraltar. Altogether, the result would be a reinforced NATO, able to support the maritime democracies of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in their quest to protect the rule of law by sea, rejecting the use of force to settle territorial disputes.
The US, NATO, and the maritime democracies of the Indo-Pacific Region should thus be grateful to David Cameron. His timely words are a step in the right direction.
Alex Calvo is a Professor of International Relations and International Law, Head of the IR Department, and Postgraduate Research Director, European University (Barcelona Campus). An expert on Asian security and defence issues, he got his LLB from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS, University of London) and is currently doing an MA in Second World War Studies at the University of Birmingham. He is a former teaching and research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan).
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