The independence of Catalonia is inevitable

The data all point in the same direction: the independence of Catalonia is inevitable for five reasons.

1. Age: the young want independence and the old don't. All ages under 65 are majority independence. In a few years, all ages will be. Time is on the side of independence.

2. Education: more education is strongly associated with higher levels of support for independence. This likely has at least somewhat of a causal component. With education levels increasing, so too will support for independence.

3. Left-right division: the Catalan left is very pro-independence, and the Catalan right very against. As with most left-right issues, time generally favors the left (homosexual marriage, rise of secularism, anti-colonialism, expansion of social state, etc.). Tick, tock.

4. Disunity among unionists: those against independence are divided on what to do. This likely means that they can only offer the "status quo". Offering more autonomy could disuade some independentists - but since most unionists are against more autonomy, it simply won't happen.

5. International image: there are no good data yet on how things look from abroad, but one number stands out: 35%. That's how many Germans wanted to extradite Puigdemont. Europe is increasingly skeptical of Spain's ability to offer Catalonia a democratic solution within Spain.

Joe Brew
@Joethebrew