The FAES Foundation (Foundation for Analysis and Social Studies) connected to the Spanish People's Party, the ruling party in Spain, with an absolute majority, and whose President is Mr. Jose M. Aznar (former Spanish President) has published a report in Libertad Digital that calculates the amount of military troops needed in order to occupy and effectively control Catalonia. The author calculates that some 270,000 soldiers would be needed, but Spain does not have that many troops right now. According to a collaborating professor at FAES, all the available Spanish troops available are 134,772, including military school and reserve troops, both in the army and the navy, and volunteer reserve as well. Even if all these were to be mobilized, they would not even make up half the amount needed to take control of Catalonia order in case of secession.
Despite the fact that Guardia Civil insists on seeing themselves as a military force, the author of this report thinks they are do not constitute enough forces, and that “even if its 80,210 personnel were added to the available soldiers, that would not be enough to reach this goal,” namely, occupying Catalonia. There would still be missing roughly 55,000 troops, without considering that in Catalonia there are 16,654 Catalan police officers and 10,894 city policemen, which means Catalonia has more than 27,000 in the police force.
Furthermore, the report states that “besides the number of available troops, there is another more important question, politics.” According to the Spanish Constitution, “Armed Forces have the mission of defending Spain's territorial integrity, and even though its supreme command belongs to the Spanish King, they are subordinated to the Government.” The Professor indicates that it is up to the Spanish Government, not to the King, to give the order of occupying Catalonia in case of secession.
French version here
French version here
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