The British Prime Minister has bad news for Spain: forget about a coup

Help Catalonia among others was quick to report the insults that Jose Manuel Sanchez Fornet directed at the Catalan people after, once more, the Spanish anthem was booed. This time after a race at Catalunya Circuit, in Montmelo, on 16 June. Sanchez Fornet is the secretary general of one of the main Spanish police trade unions, the Unified Police Trade Union [SUP]. He posted his insults on Twitter, and later followed them up with further offensive tweets.

Although initial reports focused on the exact working of his insults, and on the aggravating circumstance that they came from a senior police trade unionist, we should ask ourselves whether it was the booing of the Spanish anthem which really tells the whole story. Of course, for Spanish nationalists seeing slaves in their milking cow colony reject the imposition of alien political rule is painful in and by itself. However, is that all? Or has something happened over the last few days that is making them feel even more frustrated?.

The answer lies in the valiant words by British Prime Minister David Cameron last week, when he warned Spain that it was time to acknowledge Catalan demands and let the people speak. Nothing new for Great Britain, of course, recently in March the Falklands held a referendum where they made it very clear that they had no intention of surrendering to the common or garden dictators. A shock for Spain, though, where democracy is a plant with shallow roots, and the notion of a people democratically deciding their destiny a revolutionary concept.

Until recently, many Spaniards hoped that as a last resort they could always use force, as they had done so often in the past. While some publicly threatened Catalan Prime Minister Mas with prison or execution, others were more discreet but still made it clear that they were ready to use the police and the military to prevent Catalonia from resuming their sovereignty. Tellingly, the Spanish Government has repeatedly refused to rule out a coup.

Well, David Cameron has bad news for Spain: forget about it.

Let us say it again, to make sure everybody understands: Dear Spain, forget about using force against Catalonia. Make your case, try to democratically convince Catalans to stay (in case you can think of any argument against independence, rather a tall order I am afraid), and should you fail in that endeavour, say goodbye to Catalonia. It is not us saying this, it is the prime minister of the United Kingdom. A first-rate power, with a seat at the UN Security Council, and one of the recognized nuclear weapons states.

For a third time, Great Britain is deterring Spain

Now, what makes us be so sure? What if Spaniards simply ignore David Cameron's warning and open fire against civilians? Well, history seems to point out that no matter how much they bark, at the end of the day they behave. During the Second World War they were tempted, deeply tempted, to join Hitler. They knew, however, that Great Britain and her allies would ultimately prevail. So they bit their tongue and behaved. Yes, they sent a division to the Eastern Front, but they did not have what it takes to join in the attack against Great Britain. Then, some decades later, in 1982, they provided diplomatic support to the common or garden dictators. Spain was one of the countries with the dubious honour of voting against UNSC Resolution 502, and was clearly following events in the South Atlantic to gauge British resolve to defend freedom and democracy in Gibraltar. When Spanish police detected a terrorist squad from Argentina, bound for the Rock, Madrid hesitated, but once more was successfully deterred. They were not arrested and handed over to Great Britain, as any civilized country would have done, but instead of letting them proceed they were put on a plane back to their country. For a second time, Great Britain had successfully deterred Spanish nationalists.

Freedom never comes free, we shall do our duty and some will never come home

Now, for a third time, London is telling Madrid to keep her hands in her pockets. This fact, and the realization that a coup is no longer possible, is what is eating at Mr Sanchez Fornet's heart. It is not just seeing people march for independence, but being aware that he will not be able to shoot them. It is the realization that he will not be able to commit war crimes to keep the slaves under control. Therefore, let us thank Great Britain, brace ourselves for increased tensions and even harsher words from our beloved neighbours, and keep working for our children's future. And, once we rejoin the concert of free nations, let us make sure we fully comply with our duties. Freedom never comes free, and just as we now enjoy the fruits of British preemptive intervention, let us never forget that the time will soon come when Catalan and British soldiers will be fighting side by side in some far away field. Some will never come home.

Alex Calvo is a Professor of International Relations and International Law, Head of the IR Department, and Postgraduate Research Director, European University (Barcelona Campus). An expert on Asian security and defence issues, he got his LLB from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS, University of London) and is currently doing an MA in Second World War Studies at the University of  Birmingham. He is a former teaching and research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan).