Barcelona Mayor Xavier Trias embodies the strength of the
Catalan independence movement. A doctor by training, he could well pass for a
small village doctor, one of those characters curing not only with their
scientific knowledge but also with their calm manner and ability to listen to
ordinary people.
Furthermore, as he himself explains, far
from being an early hour defender of independence, like many Catalans (in a tale
that will sound familiar to our American readers, as explained in the US
Declaration of Independence) Trias tried for long years to reach some sort of
accommodation with Madrid, whereby Catalonia may remain under the Spanish Crown
while enjoying full respect for her culture, language, and laws. Once it became
clear that this was not possible, this quiet figure did not hesitate to take the
grave decision to work to join the international community as a fully sovereign
state. Another interesting aspect of Xavier Trias is how, again quietly, without
much noise, without any sound bites or attempts to take political centre stage,
he has put an end to the benign neglect of security by Barcelona City Council.
Under Trias, Barcelona Local Police has started to patrol the subway and
launched an investigation unit, while the City Council signed a cooperation
agreement with the traditional city militia, the “Coronela”, currently in the
shape of a military re-enactment group but with a view to a
full normalization within NATO. An English speaker, who has also mastered other
foreign languages, Trias does not need any interpreter to understand that the
Atlantic Alliance needs serious security policies in one of her main ports,
currently excluded from military traffic by Spain's defence apartheid policies,
but ready and willing to contribute to the securing of the Mediterranean, an
essential step to reinforce the maritime democracies in the Indian-Pacific Ocean
Region.
While these are steps in the right
direction, and have not gone unnoticed in national security circles of Allied
nations, danger looms over the mayor of Barcelona. As the most visible face of
Catalonia's capital, one of the Patriot leaders, and someone with extensive
international contacts, it is not a long stretch of imagination to expect him to
become one of the key targets of a Spanish military operation designed to
prevent Catalans from going to the polls on 11/9. This could take the form of a
coup, let us not forget that some chapters of the 1978 Spanish constitution were
drafted by the military, who granted themselves the role of guaranteeing
“national unity”, thus becoming in the words of the Founding Fathers a
“military
independent of, & superior to the civil power”, or it
could follow orders from the Rajoy administration, which has repeatedly refused
to rule out resorting to force, despite public
pressure by, among others, British Prime Minister David Cameron.
If Spain finally decided to strike at Catalonia, the
resulting operations could take many forms, from a cyber attack to the
occupation of key facilities, with a wide range of possibilities in between. It
could be followed by a suspension of the Catalan Government, and the stripping
of some of its key powers, chief among them those over the Catalan Police Force
(Mossos d'Esquadra). A straight textbook military occupation seems unlikely
because Spain does not have the necessary volume of troops.
In any of these scenarios, Barcelona's Local
Police would have a duty to protect the mayor. By protecting we do not only mean
preserving his life and limb but also his freedom of movements and
communications with the outside world. By ensuring that Trias was free to speak
to the international media and to the leaders of the Free World, police would be
making a major contribution to the defeat of the coup. In order to avoid
misunderstandings, let us repeat this: Spain does not have the troops, nor the
equipment for that matter, to launch a conventional military occupation of
Catalonia. Instead, she could use a limited degree of force to instil fear among
Catalan citizens and Patriot leaders. In war, force is not a goal in itself, but
simply a means to achieve a political objective, thus the aim of the defender
must be to prevent the aggressor from achieving that political objective. There
is no need to prevail in every engagement, as long as this ultimate goal is
attained. With Barcelona's mayor free, unharmed, and talking to the
international media without any interpreter, the Rajoy administration would be
hard pressed to impose its narrative of the conflict. A conflict, let us never
forget it, between democracy and tyranny, between those who believe in
empowering citizens, and those who would rather enslave them. A conflict between
government of the people, by the people, and for the people, on the one hand,
and between old-regime notions of divine national sovereignty on the
other.
Therefore, the first step to guarantee that
the aggressors will fail to silence Trias is to understand that there is a very
real possibility of a coup. Here we must avoid a mistake, very common in the
history of intelligence operations, namely that of projecting our own values on
to the enemy. The fact that Catalans are democrats does not mean that Spaniards
are, sadly the contrary is true. Furthermore, if Madrid believed in democracy,
she would pose no obstacles to a referendum, and would simply campaign to
convince voters to choose to remain in Spain. Since, instead, the Rajoy
administration is threatening these same voters, we should not simply dismiss
those threats as the swan song of a decaying regime. By harassing Gibraltar and
supplying weapons to Buenos Aires, Madrid has already proven that she has no
qualms about the use of force to settle disputes. It is these actual deeds, not
well meaning fantasies, that we should take into account in examining the
possible scenarios.
Once this is clear, the second step is to
examine in a bit more detail these different scenarios, in order to discern the
necessary capabilities that will be needed to prevail in each. How to prevent an
assassination? What to do to ensure Trias is not poisoned? Is it better to
fortify the City Council, providing a media focus for resistance to a coup, or
to take the mayor to a secure location, or even to keep him on the go, or move
him abroad? How to secure and protect his communications? What about his
presence in the social media? All these questions, and many more, must be
answered, and they must be answered now. The clock is already ticking, and
planning, like reconnaissance, never did anybody any harm. It would be
unpardonably arrogant to fail to plan for all contingencies and scenarios,
amounting to dereliction of duty.
The third step, once a clear picture of the
different scenarios is available and the above questions have been answered, is
to secure the necessary training and equipment, and to set up or adapt the
necessary units within Barcelona's Local Police Force. While some of the
necessary capabilities already exist, it may be necessary to devote additional
efforts to training in areas like counterterrorism, sniping, and cybersecurity.
It may also be necessary to procure additional equipment and to forward-deploy
it where necessary.
Fourth, while some units may be rather
technical in nature, for example those responsible for protecting
communications, all personnel should be aware of what they are being called on
to do and of the potential sacrifices it implies. Here, an exercise in sincerity
is essential, there is no point trying to sugarcoat this. Policemen detailed to
protect the mayor must be ready to die, and to kill, in the discharge of their
duties. Needless to say, this goes beyond what most people have in mind when
they take such a job, although on the other hand it is simply an extension of a
police officer's duty to uphold the law and the life and property of citizens
against criminals, in this case state (or war) criminals. As a result, it is
essential to ensure that only volunteers fill these positions, and that in
addition to freely undertaking such jobs, they are physically and mentally
capable of discharging their duties. Not everybody is ready to operate under the
pressure involved in defending a democratic leader against what Margaret
Thatcher called “military hooligans” and Roosevelt often referred to as
“thugs”.
Fifth, the necessary rules of engagement
(ROEs) must be drawn and communicated to the relevant personnel. For example, if
Spanish troops try to arrest the mayor, should the local police open fire to
prevent it, or wait until the enemy has shot first? What is the status of
Spanish troops not wearing a uniform, and to what extent would they be covered
by the laws of armed conflict? It should be made clear in advance that police
officers resorting to force, in accordance with these rules of engagement and
the international law of armed conflict, would enjoy immunity and not be subject
to any criminal proceedings.
The sixth point is to ensure the appropriate
coordination with the Catalan Government. The roles of Prime Minister Mas and
Barcelona Mayor Trias in the event of a coup should be seen as complementary. A
possibility, for example, would be to keep the prime minister at his office,
duly protected against an attack and with the necessary outside channels of
communication open, including regular contact with the international media,
while the mayor moved abroad to inform in person the leaders of the maritime
democracies about events in Catalonia. Whatever the strategy chosen, it is
essential that it has been agreed to in advance. Also, concerning capabilities,
some may be better developed in coordination with the Catalan Police Force,
although at the same time a degree of duplication may enhance resilience and
survivability.
Finally, while Barcelona Police Force's
first and foremost duty in the event of a coup would be to protect the life,
health, freedom of movement, and freedom and security of communications and
access to the social media, of the mayor, it would also be responsible, as with
any other crime, for collecting evidence. This evidence, pictures and
fingerprints of war criminals, for example, could be later used to prosecute
them either before a Catalan, or an international, court. If it turned out to be
impossible to put them on trial, for example because they took refuge in Spain
and Madrid refused to hand them over, then this evidence could be used to hunt
them down, thereby ensuring Justice was done.
Alex Calvo is an expert in Asian security
and defence
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