Last
year, news of Spain's decision to provide water, fuel, and other
supplies to the 6,900-tonne destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov and the
tankers Duban and Sergey Osipov at Ceuta (a Spanish-administered city in
North Africa, facing Gibraltar and claimed by Morocco) in the midst of
the Ukrainian crisis prompted surprise and even anger in many Allied
quarters. After all, NATO was supposed to be breaking military relations
with Russia, implementing sanctions, and showing the world its
opposition to Russian policy in the Ukraine, not refueling Russian
warships. In the whole of 2014, Russian warships paid 13 visits to
Ceuta, the port becoming one of the cornerstones in Moscow's drive for a
much larger naval blueprint. This was the more strange given that
Madrid was among the most vocal members of the Atlantic Alliance when it
came to denouncing the Crimean referendum, in an openly-acknowledged
bid to try to taint Catalonia's (conquered in 1714) self-determination
vote, which took place on 9 November.
The
question thus appears what may have prompted Madrid's U-turn. Some
British voices have already mentioned what could be a very important
factor: Spain's harassment campaign against Gibraltar. Furthermore,
recent Royal Navy reinforcements to the Rock seem designed, among
others, to counter the threat of increased offshore Elint gathering by
Russian warships operating with Spanish logistical support. While this
seems to be at least one of the factors at play, could there perhaps be
others?
Going
back to the Catalan 9 November referendum, Rajoy's administration has
repeatedly tried to secure public commitments by partners and allies not
to recognize an independent Catalonia, with little success to date.
Obama has remained silent, even when Rajoy brought up the subject in a
joint meeting before journalists. Cameron has not only refused to play
ball, but even publicly admonished his Spanish counterpart to resort to
dialogue, not force. France (which, to add insult to injury, now has a
Catalan-born prime minister), by repeatedly refusing to drill a tunnel
through the Central Pyrenees has condemned Madrid to recognize
Catalonia, through which most Spanish overland exports to the EU travel.
Spain's only successes have been among European Commission members, but
unfortunately for Madrid it is member states, not the Commission, which
take important decisions in the European Union.
So,
what options are left to Madrid? Well, not many really ... perhaps
Russia? This may have easily crossed Rajoy's mind when confronted with a
request for logistical support in the midst of a major NATO-Russia
crisis. Or was it perhaps Putin who discreetly brought up the question?
We are speculating here, since there is no open source evidence that any
such exchange took place, but it clearly makes sense. An isolated
Spain, having failed to secure support from her partners and allies, may
well be tempted to try to get a hand from the Russian big brother.
Making life difficult for the people of Gibraltar would provide an added
incentive. On the other hand, a Russia seeking ways to strike back at
NATO without risking an escalation could find the prospect of a de facto
naval base right in front of the Rock, at the gate of the
Mediterranean, most appealing. Actually, old-fashioned naval bases are
no longer in vogue, as we have been seeing in the Indian-Pacific Ocean
Region lately, dual-purpose infrastructures are much more flexible and
politically convenient. There is no need for Russia and Spain to sign
any formal agreement, it suffices for Russian warships to know that they
can quietly refuel and resupply at Ceuta.
How
should thus NATO respond? There may be no easy answers to this
question, but it seems clear that as long as uncertainty concerning
Catalonia's status remains Spain may be tempted, strongly tempted, to
play the Russian card, even more so at a time of heightened tensions
with Moscow. To prevent this NATO and the maritime democracies only have
two realistic options: either support Spain in employing military force
to crush Catalonia's push to recover independence, or force Madrid to
renounce the use of force and promptly recognize Catalonia after she
declares independence. Any middle ground, by lengthening Spain's agony,
is only likely to increase even further Madrid's incentives to break
ranks with NATO and support Russian naval operations in the
Mediterranean and the Atlantic. The democratic values espoused by the
members of the Atlantic Alliance should make us hopeful that NATO will
choose the latter course of action.
Alex Calvo is an expert in Asian security and defence
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